Oliver Hume Chief Economist Matt Bell says “CoreLogic’s January Home Value Index has reported flat house price growth across the country and continuing falls in capital cities. The trend across nearly all markets was unchanged in January, with no time for the CPI result and change in rate cut expectations experienced on 29 January to flow through to dwelling values.

With rate cuts now widely expected to commence in February 2025 and deliver 3 or 4 cuts throughout the calendar year, most house price forecasts of continued house price growth in 2025 are looking pretty good. Most expect the high growth experienced in Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane to ease, Sydney to remain about the same, and Melbourne to move from falling house prices to price growth. Some early indications from January Auction clearance rates in the major capitals already point to the recent downward trend in dwelling values stabilising.

What does this mean for key land markets?

This month’s house price results don’t materially change our view for any of them. We are expected increased sales volumes and rising prices across all land markets in 2025, particularly in the second half, as rate cuts work their way through household finances and balance sheets.

Southeast Queensland and Adelaide land markets held up well in 2024, and we expect volumes to hold at these levels or increase slightly and prices to keep rising in both markets.

Victoria, the country’s largest land market, has fared the worst of all land markets as interest rate rates rose. Volumes fell heavily and prices remain stagnant. We think there is more upside to this market that any other land market in the country. Not only will it benefit from rate cuts and ongoing population growth, but the affordability advantage other land markets have had for a long time have shrunk (Adelaide) or completely evaporated (Southeast Queensland).”

More Oliver Hume readings 

Mitchy Koper and Matthew Bell join Oliver Hume Corporation | The ASEAN Developer

Southeast Queensland land continues as supply returns - Oliver Hume | The ASEAN Developer

Oliver Hume Welcomes Doubling of Queensland First Home Owner Grant | The ASEAN Developer

Melbourne Land Prices Hold Firm In September - Oliver Hume | The ASEAN Developer